Atish Gude, a senior vice president for mobile
broadband operations at Xohm, notes that the network
will let the cable companies “take WiMax in directions
we could not go on our own.” For example, customers
could use the network to remotely control their home
set-top boxes so they could watch recorded shows while
staying at a hotel. Doing so would fold into the set-top
box a service that is available today only from an
independent company known as Slingbox—just as the
recording capabilities of today’s set-top boxes were
once available only from TiVo.
Intel’s investment requires a different explanation.
The company, Gude notes, needs the WiMax ecosystem to
grow quickly to recoup a big investment it made in
developing its chipsets. Google’s interest, on the other
hand, is in seeing that its users have as many broadband
options as possible, so that network operators like
Verizon can’t impose themselves between Google and its
users—hence Google’s unsuccessful bid earlier this year
for a nationwide license in the 700 MHz auction.
Even with an extra $3.2 billion, Clearwire is hardly
out of the woods. Xohm’s original plan to cover 100
million potential subscribers (or POPs in industry
lingo) by the end of 2008 has been greatly scaled back.
Gude says Sprint’s portion would probably amount to 15
million this year; he can’t say how much greater the
collective total subscribers would be for the new
Clearwire. He does add, however, that longer-term
targets haven’t changed: 120 million to 140 million POPs
by 2010.
Philip Solis, a telecommunications analyst at ABI
Research, points out that the company admits it will
eventually need another $2 billion to $2.5 billion,
which it says it will obtain “opportunistically.” But it
does have enough money, Solis says, “to get a lot of
coverage going.”
Solis says that even 120 million POPs could give
Clearwire a considerable head start over Verizon and
AT&T, whose choice for mobile broadband, a
technology known as LTE, was ratified as a standard only
early this year, three years after the mobile version of
IEEE 802.16.
The three-year jump may not hold. According to Solis,
Verizon, which is proceeding more aggressively than
AT&T, wants to have nationwide LTE coverage by 2010.
“Even if Clearwire has a service it can call nationwide
by 2009, that’s only a one-year lead,” he says.
Can Verizon move that quickly? With new financing and
new management, can Clearwire? Only one thing is
certain: the race for 4G cellular in the United States
is on, and it will go to the swift.