Africa has seen economic
booms before—from oil, diamonds, and
more—but hardly any have benefited ordinary Africans.
This one might be different.
As of March 2004, the telecommunications sector was
the fastest-growing employer in Nigeria. It directly
employed 5000 people, indirectly employed 400 000,
attracted more than US $4 billion in investment the year
before and contributed about 3 percent to the gross
domestic product—and this was when Nigeria's cellphone
companies boasted only 4 million subscribers. There are
more than 19 million today.
While carriers can provide jobs to qualified engineers
and administrators, indirect employment can help spread
the wealth even to those who don't have the benefit of
education or the right connections. Again, without
reliable data to consult, we must rely on our own
observations to document the trickle-down effect
wireless carriers are having on African economies. One
indicator of the telecommunications industry's deep
penetration into the everyday economy is the ubiquitous
wireless-phone kiosk, where customers can rent mobile
phones by the minute.
Cheap to set up and lucrative to operate, kiosks often
provide a family's sole income stream. Owners initially
invest about $100 to build a small shack and to buy a
handset and charger, an expense of $40 to $60. The SIM
card and activation could cost another $10 to $20. In
Kenya, mobile-service entrepreneurs often forgo the
shack and instead carry handsets on lanyards around
their necks, finding customers as they stroll around marketplaces.
The average cost of a 3-minute mobile-to-mobile phone
call in sub-Saharan Africa is 57 cents. Overseas calls
made from a wireless phone are an even greater bargain,
which has let African businesses connect to foreign
partners at much cheaper international calling rates
than those charged on landlines. For example, the
average cost of a call from Cameroon to the United
States is 50 cents per minute using a mobile phone,
while the same call on a landline phone is $6 per
minute. That's because most landline international phone
calls from Cameroon are routed through France, which
charges switching fees. Wireless telephony helps
Africans bypass the European tollgate and bounce calls
to satellites for long-distance service.
Most kiosk owners we surveyed in Kenya charge about 25
cents per minute for a local call and about 50 cents for
an international one. Kiosk owners and strolling vendors
alike earn as much as $400 per month, much more than
what many college graduates earn at Kenyan corporations.
The sale of prepaid cards themselves has become big
business. In Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda, most
convenience stores do brisk business selling prepaid
phone cards. Informal evidence suggests that these cards
generate thousands of dollars per year in extra revenue.
Card sellers who do not own convenience stores stand by
the roadside or trawl through traffic jams to ply their
trade [see photo, "Curbside
Service"]. Card vendors make more money than
government secretaries and elementary school teachers
do; many of them own one or more mobile phones themselves.
In fact, ambitious kiosk owners—and many business
people—often need to own multiple handsets to place
calls on a country's separate networks. That's a direct
result of the failure of telecom regulators to mandate
that networks interoperate. In most sub-Saharan
countries, wireless companies do not allow rivals access
to their networks. (This is also true of countries in
other turbulent and developing regions; see "Iraq Goes
Wireless," in the March 2006 issue of IEEE Spectrum.)
MTN and Vodacom customers can't place calls to one
another. In the short term, totally separate networks
translate into more handsets for people who can afford
them and more customers for certain carriers. In the
long term, the industry risks increasing customer
dissatisfaction as the novelty of ready access to
telecommunications wears off and customers begin to
demand better quality of service.
For both good and
bad, the age of affordable cellphonesis as
much a social phenomenon as an economic revolution.
Equipped with mobile phones, poll-watching citizens can
instantly report ballot fraud. Spouses cheat on each
other by secretly and silently arranging dates via text
messages. And criminals go to extreme lengths to get
their hands on coveted handsets, sometimes even
impersonating taxi drivers and picking up only
passengers carrying handsets they want to steal.
The sub-Saharan region is notorious for its history of
undemocratic practices. Its checkered past is littered
with stories of nominally democratic elections that have
been hijacked by incumbent presidents. But this
situation is changing with increased access to wireless
technologies, news media, and the Internet, which have
combined to educate Africans about democratic practices
and human rights.
A good example is Senegal's 2000 presidential
election, when citizens armed with radios and cellphones
helped to prevent incumbent president Abdou Diouf from
rigging the elections. During the balloting,
city-dwelling Senegalese walked around with handheld
radios and mobile phones. Radio stations sent reporters
to hundreds of individual voting bureaus. Within minutes
of the local officials' announcing the result, the
reporters got on their mobile phones and broadcast it.
Given the situation, it was difficult for the
authorities to massage the result without the
electorate's knowing all about it. Diouf, who had been
president since 1981 and had come in a clear second to
president-elect Abdoulaye Wade, peaceably abdicated power.
Election monitoring isn't just good for democracy; it
can be good for business, too. In Kenya, Safaricom gives
paying customers election results via text messages. It
launched its Get-It 411 short message services in 2002
to provide subscribers with local and international
news, sports scores, horoscopes, movie listings,
inspirational quotes, and election updates, each of
which can be sent to the user for a fee of 7 shillings
(about 10 U.S. cents) per message.
While some Africans wield their cellphones to protect
their fledgling democracies, others thumb the keypad for
that most prurient of purposes—the booty call\0xFEFF.
Mobile telephony provides a new, convenient way to carry
on affairs without risking a spouse's overhearing plans
for an illicit rendezvous. Lovers often communicate with
text messages or "beeping"—one party dials another's
number and then hangs up. Beep buddies usually work out
a code between themselves. One ring could mean, "I am
here," two rings, "Call me now." In most of Asia,
Europe, and Africa, where the calling party pays only
upon connection, beeping is a cheap way to send a signal.
That's not to say that the carriers are losing out
when facilitating love connections. On the contrary, an
affluent, philandering husband may be great for
business. His social network depends on him: the more
ladies he romances, the bigger his network grows, and
the more people he pays to connect. Say John has three
phones, one for his wife and family on one carrier, one
for his business on another, and one for his mistress on
yet another. He will almost certainly buy seven phone
cards: three for himself, one for his wife, one for his
parents, one for his wife's parents, and one for his
mistress. His mistress might ask him to buy a phone card
for her mother and her sister. One paying user, but nine
times the business.
While it is impossible to precisely quantify the
impact such social networks might have on the phenomenal
growth wireless carriers currently enjoy, the
consequence of one man's losing his livelihood could be
that nine fewer phone cards are purchased during a
particular time. Scale up those numbers in the event of
an economic downturn, and a country's cellphone boom
could quickly go bust. Looking only at the number of
subscribers that carriers trumpet in their press
releases doesn't tell the whole story. As we've seen in
our travels, there's a serious need for more
comprehensive, quantitative studies of both the
economics and the social dynamics that underpin Africa's
wireless sector.
Africa no longer has a
problem with the lack of telecommunications
infrastructure, because most of the region's inhabitants
are now, or soon will be, covered by mobile signals. In
the long run, however, some countries might have trouble
sustaining these new services, partly because of a lack
of investment strategies and financial management skills
at the street level and partly because of capital drain,
a hidden consequence of the privatization policies that
have fostered Africa's wireless boom.
We view this boom and the jobs it brings with cautious
optimism. On the one hand, cellphones have triggered a
substantial increase in complementary service jobs, such
as vendors who sell prepaid cards, cellphone covers,
handsets, and headsets. It is still the case, however,
that most vendors live hand-to-mouth, not surprising in
these traditionally agrarian societies. Neither kiosk
owners nor street vendors are saving for future business
investments that might eventually help them move beyond
subsistence. We recommend that African governments
provide basic financial management training programs for
vendors, especially kiosk owners, who need help to look
beyond their immediate financial gains to a sustainable future.
The issue of sustainability extends to businesses as
well. More than 80 percent of cellphones purchased in
sub-Saharan African countries are for personal use, not
business. In fact, fewer than 10 percent of the region's
businesses provide employees with cellphones for
day-to-day business-related transactions. If this trend
continues without aggressive endeavors to leverage
wireless telecommunications to promote other economic
sectors, the new economic ladder erected by the wireless
industry will rest on very shaky ground indeed.
Finally, there is the issue of capital flow. The
privatization process in most sub-Saharan countries aims
to attract both local and foreign investors. It is often
the case, however, that privatization hinges almost
entirely on foreign investments, especially from Europe
and the United States. Foreign investors bring resources
that most local investors do not, such as the initial
capital for infrastructure, and they tend to win the
majority of wireless licenses. Although this could be a
good strategy in the short run, it remains to be seen
whether this approach promotes sustainable development
within the region, considering that most of the returns
on such investments accrue to foreign shareholders and
are not plowed back into Africa—a typical form of
neocolonialism. African regulators need to develop
strategies to promote local investments in the wireless
arena, as well as in other telecommunications sectors.
They could benefit tremendously from more research in
this area.
That said, foreign investment is key to raising the
incomes and living standards of Africans. There is still
a long list of items that African nations and the world
at large need to address—including electric power,
housing, clean drinking water, public health, and
education. But at least now we can check off
telecommunications. Wireless carriers have connected
individuals and businesses to the rest of the world and,
most important, to each other. It's a giant step on the
long road to development.
For more about the growth of wireless telephony in
Africa, see M-Commerce in Africa—Innovation Overcoming
Barriers, by P. Hamilton, World Markets Research Centre,
2002, http://www.wmrc.com.