Lanchester and the Gulf War

Meanwhile, throughout the last half of the 1970s and through the 1980s, Bill Perry, then Defense Department undersecretary for research and engineering, and his successors concentrated on developing a set of capabilities that would reduce the Warsaw Pact's numerical advantages. Developments included better platforms (such as the M-1 tank), systems for vastly reducing the effectiveness of some enemy systems (such as stealth aircraft and C3CM approaches), and systems for greatly improved surveillance, C3, and asymmetric engagements.

Although, happily, war with the Warsaw Pact alliance was avoided, the success and broad applicability of U.S. efforts were demonstrated by the rapidity and completeness of the 1991 Persian Gulf War victory.

Here are two interesting examples:

1. Opening attacks by Tomahawk cruise missiles and stealth aircraft crippled the Iraqi C3 system. Those attacks were followed by air-launched anti-radiation missiles to finish off the high-altitude SAMs, which allowed U.S. tactical aircraft to operate with relative impunity above the coverage of short-range infrared missiles and "plink" enemy tanks and artillery with laser-guided bombs.

2. Before completing its encirclement, the famous deceptive "left hook" was apparently discovered, and an Iraqi force attempted to move into a blocking position. This movement was detected by the JointSTARS aircraft, which uses a special radar to detect and track moving ground vehicles.

In discussing the lopsided outcome of the Gulf War, Perry compared it to a basketball game that ended 100-1. Could the winning team have shot that much better or rebounded, defended, and passed that much better? No, the team that lost was blindfolded, and the team that won had perfect vision.

The war's Desert Storm operation was unquestionably one of the most studied of all time. Many groups and nations analyzed it. India, for example, produced a five-volume report.

The principal conclusion was that U.S. capabilities in conventional tactical wars were so great and represented such a sizable investment that no sensible nation would challenge the United States in a direct conventional war, provided it retained such capabilities. Suggested countermeasures were generally in two categories: high tech and low tech.

High Tech: Nearly all studies noted that the overwhelming U.S. capabilities depended on large air bases and logistic supply centers near the war zone. The high-tech counter would be to make such facilities dangerous to use. Such a counter would provide, much as the newer U.S. capabilities have, huge leverage and represent a significant asymmetric engagement capability.

Low Tech: It was also noted that, whereas in past battles between conventional forces the relative size and capabilities of the forces played a dominant role, there have been many cases where one side with grossly inadequate conventional forces, or none at all, adopted tactics that offset conventional capabilities. The difficulties the U.S. military had in the Vietnam War were especially noted and, thus, the low-tech counters suggested were forms of guerrilla warfare, including urban and jungle operations. Such low-tech counters largely avoid traditional battles and, therefore, thwart the effectiveness of most modern military capabilities. In addition, without conventional engagements, neither Lanchester nor its counters apply.

In the 1990s, the United States continued developing advanced asymmetric engagement capabilities, including greatly improved surveillance, situation awareness, and Global Positioning System (GPS)-guided weapons. Meanwhile, several nations, drawing on the lessons learned from Desert Storm, pursued the high-tech counter. Iran, North Korea, Syria, India, and Pakistan developed longer range, more accurate ballistic missiles that would allow them to put any nearby bases at risk and, thus, attenuate or deny U.S. capabilities.

For example, the Iranian Shahab-3 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), with a 1-ton warhead and a range of 1200 miles, can cover the entire Arabian Peninsula and more. Such a weapon, even with a conventional warhead, could create serious problems for the United States. With a WMD warhead, the situation probably would be untenable. The Shahab-3 is a derivative of the North Korean Nodong missile. Clearly, the deterrent value of IRBMs is greatly increased if they have nuclear warheads—which probably accounts for the priority efforts by Iran and North Korea to develop such missiles.