The Brazilian centrifuges have yet to demonstrate
those advantages, but they have already sparked a major
controversy. Brazil, as a party to the NPT, has agreed
to have its nuclear facilities inspected by the
International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nation's
watchdog organization, based in Vienna, Austria. But in
2004, when Brazil and the IAEA began discussing
inspections at Resende, they reached a deadlock. Brazil
argued that it needed to protect proprietary aspects of
its centrifuges; these details apparently included size,
shape, materials, and also parts of the control system
that are visible. Brazil's proposed solution was to
shroud the machines with 2-meter-tall panels. The IAEA
had accepted the shielding in the past, for a navy
centrifuge pilot plant, but this time the agency
insisted it needed full visual access to the Resende
installation.
Negotiations dragged on for months, and the impasse
prompted an outcry from arms control experts. Some
argued that Brazil was undermining the nonproliferation
regime by setting a precedent for Iran to demand the
same treatment. Others claimed that Brazilian
centrifuges were copies of the European design. And yet
others speculated about the Resende plant's potential to
produce highly enriched uranium—enough for up to six
bombs a year, according to one estimate.
Brazilian officials deny these charges. They say that
Brazil can't be compared to Iran, known to have violated
the NPT, and that there was no illegal transfer of
technology. As for Resende's potential to make
weapons-grade material, that claim "is baseless
speculation," says Odair Gonçalves, president of
Brazil's National Commission on Nuclear Energy.
Finally, in October 2004, Brazil and the IAEA agreed
on inspection terms. Brazil reduced the size of the
masking panels and accepted other procedures to
guarantee that no diversion of uranium could take place
in the centrifuge hall. Afterward, the IAEA seemed
satisfied, and last year, the agency gave its official
approval to the plant's first cascade, which is now
going into operation.
The episode, however, still puzzles some experts.
"The Brazilian case, the only thing that's really
strange about it is the secrecy thing—there's no good
explanation for it," says physicist Thomas L. Neff, a
senior researcher with the Center for International
Studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, in
Cambridge. "The Brazilians say they have proprietary
technology. Well, others have proprietary technology,
and they don't seem to think that is a problem. No one
else conceals their centrifuges from the IAEA."
Experts like Neff insist that Brazil needs to be more
transparent, or suspicions will remain. The problem,
they say, is that uranium centrifuges have been tainted
by a number of proliferation incidents. In the 1980s,
Iraq experimented with centrifuges it acquired from
German technicians who had stolen Urenco's designs.
Iran, Libya, and North Korea are all believed to have
acquired centrifuge technology from a secret smuggling
network—exposed in 2004—set up by Abdul Qadeer Khan,
the former head of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program,
who also obtained classified designs from Urenco.
The sensitivity of enrichment technology became
evident during a conference of the treaty signatories
this past May to review the NPT. "Without question,
improving control over facilities capable of producing
weapon-usable material will go a long way toward
establishing a better margin of security," said Mohamed
ElBaradei, director general of the IAEA, at the opening
of the conference in New York City. No such improvements
came out of that conference, however. Today, as the
standoff with Iran suggests, experts aren't really sure
what is the best way—or whether it's even possible—to
tighten control over sensitive nuclear technologies, and
some are even suggesting that the nonproliferation
regime is dangerously eroding.