"Your mileage may vary." Yes, indeed—it could be as
much as 30 percent lower than government ratings, as
some new owners of hybrid-electric vehicles discovered,
to their dismay, last year.
If 2004 began with drivers in the United States and a
few other places giving hybrids a heartfelt hug, it
ended with a more subdued embrace. One of the reasons
was disappointment over real-world mileage. Official
ratings for fuel use, based on the outdated driving
patterns of U.S. government tests, turned out to be a
poor predictor for what typical buyers could expect.
But if the hybrid honeymoon is over, the marriage is
still in solid shape. In some areas, a buyer must wait
months for a Toyota Prius. Toyota plans to build 100 000
Priuses in 2005, up from 67 000 last year. Waiting in
the wings is the Lexus RH 400h luxury hybrid sport
utility vehicle, now scheduled to go on sale 15 April in
the United States. As of December 2004, buyers had
already paid deposits for half of the year's production
of 20 000.
Hybrids are now also offered or planned by Ford,
General Motors, Honda, Nissan, and Toyota. GM and
DaimlerChrysler announced that they would get together
to develop a full-hybrid system to be offered in the
2008 model year. Even Porsche confirmed that it might
license Toyota's hybrid technology for its sport utility
Cayenne, infuriating die-hard fans of the company's
signature lithe, high-performance sports cars.
Still, though hybrids are hot, no single vehicle is
likely to make as much of a splash this year as the
revamped Prius did in 2004. The closest thing to a
recurring theme in 2005 will be electronic stability
control. It will shift from an expensive option to a
necessity on the tall, heavy sport utility vehicles that
still make up one of the most popular categories in the
United States. Daimler, Ford, and GM announced that
stability control would be standard on all their SUVs by
the 2007 model year. The notice followed the release of
a study by the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration that found stability-control technology
reduced single-vehicle crashes in SUVs by 67 percent and
fatal crashes by 64 percent.
Among concept cars, hybrid electrics are still going
strong, and more of them are being built with
lithium-ion batteries rather than the standard
nickel-metal hydride. Lithium-ion, now used mostly in
consumer electronics, offers close to twice the energy
density of nickel-metal hydride. The wildest lithium-ion
vehicle so far has to be the luxury-sedan concept Eliica
from Keio University in Japan, reminiscent of nothing so
much as the nuclear-powered, six-wheeled pink
Rolls-Royce that ferried Lady Penelope Creighton-Ward in
the 1960s children's TV puppet show "Thunderbirds."
Built by a team from the Electrical Vehicle Laboratory
at Keio University's Faculty of Environmental
Information, the Eliica has eight wheels and a projected
top speed in excess of 368 km/h (229 mph). Unlike Lady
Penelope's car, it will not be offered with a machine
gun that deploys from the front grille.
Elicia Eight wheels,
eight motors, no tailpipe
Aficionados know that every auto show has its
share of malproportioned design exercises, technical
oddities, and just plain weirdness. But to make jaws
drop in awe at an international auto show—that takes
some doing.