university of washington libraries/special collections/uw21414
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You're probably familiar with the 1940 collapse of
the original Tacoma Narrows Bridge, in Washington state,
even if you don't recognize the name: the
black-and-white footage of this suspension bridge
twisting and buckling dramatically before finally
disintegrating has become an icon of engineering
failure.
What you're probably less aware of is that the Tacoma
Narrows Bridge incident was just the most photogenic of
a sequence of significant bridge failures that have
occurred at roughly 30-year intervals since 1847, when
metal began replacing stone as the material of choice
for crossing spans. And it's not just bridges that
exhibit cycles consisting of long periods of success
punctuated by disaster: spacecraft, nuclear power
plants, and other highly engineered artifacts have
followed a similar pattern.
In his latest engaging and readable book, Success Through
Failure, (see, cover image)design guru
Henry Petroski analyzes this cycle and other flaws in
the things around us to show that the old truism
"nothing succeeds like success" is in fact a recipe for
doom. When a new technology arrives on the scene
promising to solve an outstanding problem, it has not
yet been sanctified by some spectacular triumph; rather,
the supporters and critics vigorously debate the pros
and cons of the unproven technology. As a consequence,
Petroski argues, even when the new approach is
ultimately adopted, its proponents are keenly aware of
the limits, tradeoffs, and underlying assumptions that
shaped the approach, and therefore they tend to design
the first round of systems with such caveats in mind.
Once the innovation has proven itself, however, it's
not long before designers, emboldened by a series of
successes, begin to stretch the technology further and
further. The people who were around for the initial
debates—and who know where the bodies are buried, so to
speak—retire or move on. Early designs featuring the
new method can come to be perceived as overcautious or
overengineered by a new crop of designers. The result is
almost inevitable: the technology is pushed beyond its
limits as some forgotten assumption is violated.
This is what happened with the Tacoma Narrows Bridge.
By 1940, after the construction of a string of
successful suspension bridges that reached across longer
and longer spans, the heavy masonry towers, reinforcing
cross-stays, and large, boxy trusses of the Brooklyn
Bridge (a 19th-century exemplar of suspension bridge
technology) were long gone. Instead, the Tacoma Narrows
used an inexpensive, lightweight design that featured a
shallow, two-lane road deck that ran for 1.8 kilometers
(making it one of the longest bridges in the world at
the time of its construction). The pared-down design was
no match for steady winds, which set up a disastrous
fluttering resonance with the ribbonlike deck, leading
to the bridge's infamous collapse [see photo,
"A Technology Too
Far"].
A similar process occurred leading up to the
Challenger and Columbia space shuttle disasters. As
shuttles flew successful missions despite exhibiting
behavior that was outside the original design
specifications, NASA slowly shifted problems—burnt
booster O-rings in Challenger's case, the shedding of
external tank insulation in Columbia's—from urgent
causes of concern to routine service issues, as the
original engineers who helped design and build the
shuttle ended up in management or retired.
Success, it turns out, is a lousy teacher compared
with failure. Petroski uses countless interesting case
histories to show how failure motivates technological
advancement; for example, how the dismal success rate of
the original surgical treatment for removing clots from
leg arteries, which involved making incisions that could
run the entire length of a patient's limb, prompted a
young surgical technician to invent the balloon
catheter. This device was a huge leap forward for
surgery in general, and if the original clot removal
technique hadn't had such a poor track record, the
device might never have been invented. Failure, it
seems, says Petroski, is essential to successful
innovation.
But of course, we're interested in having as high a
ratio of successes to failures as possible. And though
it may be abstractly comforting to think of just how
educational the disaster that has befallen your project
may prove to be, it's of little help when you have to
deal with angry employers, clients, customers, or, in
the worst-case scenarios, random passersby who have
experienced your project's failure firsthand.
What's needed is an active approach. Citing the
software industry's experiences in anticipating the Y2K
bug, Petroski suggests keeping a few "old-timers" around
to preserve institutional memories. But his main message
is: make sure you're on top of your design assumptions;
if your only reason to believe that extending a
technology is going to work is that extending it worked
before, then your project is at serious risk of becoming
an instructive failure. I recommend you keep a copy of
Petroski's book on hand and flip through it next time
you're feeling seduced by success.