The "Set America Free" Report is based on two well-founded
assumptions. One is that the hydrogen economy cannot
be realized for at least a couple of decades, a supposition
that emerges clearly from recent reports by organizations
such as the National Academy of Sciences, in Washington,
D.C., and the American Physical Society, based in College
Park, Md. Until basic scientific breakthroughs occur,
the reports concluded, the hydrogen vision will do nothing
to liberate the United States from energy dependence
or improve prospects for bringing down greenhouse gas
emissions.
The
other assumption is that U.S. consumers will be willing,
even eager, to pay a premium of a few thousand dollars
to get cars that are more fuel efficient and environmentally
friendly. Sales of conventional hybrid-electric cars jumped
81 percent in the United States last year and are expected
to double this year. These grid-independent (non-plug-in)
hybrids cut carbon emissions up to 25 percent and smog
precursors by 15 percent. Their gains in fuel efficiency
are even more impressive: the Prius gets 4.7 L/100 km (50
mi/gal) on highways, compared with the top-selling Toyota
Camry's 7.1 L/100 km (33 mi/gal), and does better yet in
stop-and-go traffic, when the battery powers the car more
of the time.
But
make that car a plug-in, with a battery big enough to keep
the vehicle in its electric mode for all daily errands
and commuting, and the potential fuel savings become truly
prodigious. Researchers have shown that battery packs offering
an effective all-electric range of 32 km will yield up
to a 50 percent reduction in gasoline consumption. And
the hope is that in a few years, when advanced batteries
like lithium-ion become cheap enough, there will be plug-ins
with an effective electric range approaching 100 km.
At that
point, says Mark S. Duvall, manager of technology development
for transportation at the utility-sponsored Electric Power
Research Institute (EPRI), in Palo Alto, Calif., the car
will run on electricity most of the time. Such a vehicle
will use only 10 to 15 percent as much liquid fuel as a
conventional vehicle.
Duvall
points out that there's really not that much difference
between the systems in the conventional hybrid cars made
by Toyota and Honda, or in Ford's hybrid SUV, and those
that would be needed to build a plug-in hybrid. Yet the
companies have not made plug-ins available and evidently
don't plan to do so anytime soon.
To take
Toyota, the leader of the pack: "The corporation is committed
to hybrid technology, but so far [only for hybrids that]
are grid independent," according to David Hermance, executive
engineer at the Toyota Technical Center USA Inc., in Torrance,
Calif. Why? Hermance says the answer is simple: the cost
of the larger battery packs is so high Toyota could never
make a profit selling them at a price consumers would be
willing to pay. And that's just one hurdle, says the Toyota
engineer.