Switzerland is famous for its neutrality. It
sat out both world wars. It's a refuge for international
finance. It was almost the home of the United Nations.
The entire country, it sometimes seems, is dedicated to
smoothing ruffled feathers and averting conflict.
And yet, if all goes well, sometime in 2005
Switzerland will be the front line in one of the
cardinal business wars of the 21st century—a battle
royal for telecommunications supremacy between cable and
telephone companies.
In the unfamiliar role of the upstart is 152-year-old
Swisscom AG, the Bern-based Swiss phone company. Like
all the other privatized European national carriers, it
hasn't had to face any competition for much of its
history, but it's ready to now. Armed with servers,
applications, and appliances made by some of the largest
hardware and software merchants on the planet—Microsoft,
Hewlett-Packard, and Thomson—it is marching out to meet
the enemy on the unfriendliest possible turf: the
delivery of television programming.
In the meantime, its main adversary—the country's
largest cable provider, Cablecom GmbH, in Zurich—has
also been sending squadrons deep behind enemy lines,
loaded with some of the latest in telecom technology: an
Internet-based telephony service.
The two companies already go head-to-head as rival
providers of high-speed Internet access. Now each side
is striving to complete a package of offerings known as
the "triple play": voice, data, and video—that is,
telephony, the Internet, and television. The triple play
can triple per-customer revenue, bringing in as much as
US $150 per month from some households. And it reduces
"churn," the endless migration of customers from one
service provider to another, and with it the large
expense of replacing departing accounts with new ones.
When the dust settles a couple of years from now, it
will be easy to tell the winner. The victor will be the
company with more customers—and the bigger share of
annual revenue from the three Swiss consumer services,
each worth about a billion dollars.
The same basic conflict will be waged in nations
large and small around the globe. Indeed, the key weapon
on which the Battle of Switzerland will turn, a software
platform called Internet Protocol television, or IPTV,
is already being evaluated in research labs in India,
Canada, the United States, and Italy.
But only in otherwise placid Switzerland has IPTV
been put into living rooms as well. Swisscom's trial is
the most serious test anywhere of a phone company's
ability to deliver video and win customers from cable.
In other words, only in the land of civility are
customers being told to choose between a cable provider
and a telephone carrier for what is the most
revenue-intensive mode of communications we have:
television. Hanging in the balance is the future
direction of the telecommunications industry, and that
of a big chunk of the entertainment world as well.
For Microsoft Corp., the Redmond, Wash., company
behind IPTV, getting a foothold in the production and
distribution of digital audio and video is critical to
escaping the confines of the personal computer software
world it dominates. There are other ways of delivering
video across the Internet than IPTV, and there's at
least one other equally adept encoding scheme, MPEG-4,
but only Microsoft has written a single software suite
that has everything a phone company needs to get into
the television game.
A business war, like a real war, is won in the
trenches, one skirmish at a time. And while the
boardroom generals move money and personnel around like
chess pieces, it's often the lieutenants who hold the
keys to victory and defeat. One such officer is Gerhard
Mueller, project leader for broadband services at
Bluewin, a Zurich-based brand of Swisscom's that is the
nation's largest Internet service provider. (See photo,
"He likes to
watch")
In mid-September, when I visited Bluewin's offices in
an up-and-coming commercial district west of Zurich's
fashionable downtown, Mueller wasn't pondering the
long-term future of telecommunications. He was worrying
about the next stage in the trial. At the beginning of
the month, Bluewin had given the IPTV software and
hardware to 80 households—60 company employees and 20
additional "friendly" subscribers. Mueller and his
colleagues had a couple of weeks before a key milestone.
On 1 October they would decide whether to go ahead with
plans to roll out the television service, 17 days later,
to an additional 600 or so households.
Mueller's immediate problem was whether to move the
latest version of Microsoft's set-top-box software,
still in development, onto the IPTV network. In the lab,
the new version crashed a lot less often than the
previous one, which Microsoft had sent Bluewin in
August. But were there any hidden bugs he hadn't found?
Not moving the software to the production network might
leave him without enough data for the big rollout
decision on 1 October, in turn jeopardizing the schedule
of the trial as a whole.