True
technologists thrive on the chance to be in on the moment
of creation, to make something elegant and enduring. Maybe
once in their career, if they're really fortunate, they might
even get a chance to help fundamentally change the way we
work, commute, or play.
Of course,
in this big game, technical prowess is necessary but not sufficient
for victory. It's all about the project: is it in sync with
the shifting shoals of government regulation, market competition,
investor interest, and the most murky of all, the public zeitgeist?
Those are the questions that inspired this issue.
As you
may have gathered already, we picked six categories of technology—electric
power, biotechnology, and so on. Then, within each of these
categories, we picked a specific project that looked like
a winner, one that looked like a loser, and a Holy Grail—a
long-standing quest that could fundamentally change something
about our lives. We favored bold, risky projects with a sizable
potential payoff.
The winner
and loser choices here reflect nothing more, or less, than
the opinions of this magazine's staff, based on countless
telephone conversations, in-person interviews, news database
searches, e-mails, and discussions with our editorial board
and other sage advisors. We culled all this information, and
then argued among ourselves until, exhausted, we had a final
list, and then a revised final list, and then a revised revised
final list, representing the best judgments of a staff whose
combined tenure in technology journalism is measured in decades.
To pick
the winning and losing projects, we simply considered the
feasibility of their goals. We analyzed these goals in light
of technical and technology-related factors: regulation, competition,
relevant technology and market trends, and more.
Our inclusion
of losers will no doubt arouse the ire of some who believe
we have no business commenting on issues that are related
to technology, but that are not purely technological. We would
remind you that technology does not occur in a vacuum. It
lives and dies by market, regulatory, and other elusive factors
that anyone who aspires to leadership must contend with.
Also,
the dirty little secret of science and technology magazines
is that by our selection of article topics every month, we
subtly indicate endeavors that we believe to be "winners."
But as anyone who works in technology knows, most bold and
risky projects ultimately fail. They can fail for many reasons,
few of which have to do with technological elegance (remember
Betamax?). The science and technology press seldom reminds
you of this basic fact.
Others
of you will agree that this issue was worthwhile, but will
find our specific choices utterly wrongheaded. A survey of
IEEE Fellows, the results of which are published elsewhere
in this issue, did not ratify our selection of electron projection
lithography as a loser, for example. If you disagree with
us, we especially want to hear from you. A major purpose of
this issue is to provoke a reasonably civil debate on what
makes a technology project succeed or fail.
Now to
the fine print. The inclusion of a project here doesn't mean
the IEEE is endorsing it or giving it a thumbs down. Also,
we would rather you read no religious, mystical, or imperial
connotation into our use of the term "Holy Grail," which has
an essentially secular meaning in technology circles.
Let the
debate begin.