The conferral in October of the Nobel Peace
Prize on the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
and its current director general, Mohamed ElBaradei, is
noteworthy on several scores. Most obviously—and this
is about all the general press has noticed—it's a boost
for the somewhat embattled director. Much more
important, however, it represents a vote of confidence
in the controversial agency that has the sometimes
thankless job of verifying the compliance of
non-nuclear-weapons nations with treaty obligations.
Perhaps, too, the award also quietly affirms the
desirability of nuclear energy as such. The Norwegian
Nobel Committee commended the IAEA and its head, as the
opening paragraph of its citation put it, "for their
efforts...to ensure that nuclear energy for peaceful
purposes is used in the safest possible
way"—interesting language, coming from an organization
closely linked to a community of peace activists who
have always been profoundly suspicious of the atom.
Founded in 1957 to safeguard bilateral sales of
nuclear equipment and know-how, the IAEA was tainted
from its inception by its association with nuclear
commerce and the whole idea of "atoms for peace"—that
is, the uncritical promotion of nuclear energy. When the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) took force in
1970, the agency's mandate was immensely broadened to
monitor compliance with the treaty, but some wondered
whether an outfit with such a schizoid mission could
possibly succeed.
The treaty guaranteed non-nuclear-weapons states the
"inalienable right" to acquire peaceful nuclear
technology, notes physicist Wolfgang Panofsky, a former
director of the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center.
Requiring nuclear-weapons states to make good-faith
efforts toward nuclear disarmament in exchange for other
states' forgoing acquisition of nuclear weapons, the
treaty was what Panofsky calls "an uneasy bargain." And
the IAEA had the uneasy job, often working with very
fragmentary information, of verifying that non-nuclear
countries were staying non-nuclear.
The first signs were not auspicious. In the 1970s,
some countries made comprehensive sales of nuclear
equipment to dubious customers, including fuel-handling
technology that could not be readily safeguarded.
Meanwhile, in 1974, India tested what it claimed was a
"peaceful nuclear device," frontally challenging both
the legitimacy and the practical workability of the
non-proliferation regime being erected. If the reader
will indulge a personal observation, I happened to
arrive at the IAEA's headquarters in Vienna a month
after the Indian test, sent for a summer internship by a
public policy program at Princeton University. Two other
graduate interns were from Johns Hopkins University's
School of Advanced International Studies.
The three of us expected to find an agency on high
alert, abuzz with serious thought about how to address
the Indian challenge. Instead, what we found, from top
to bottom, was this attitude: India is not party to the
NPT; dealing with India is not part of our job
description; end of story. Disappointed, within a month,
all three of us had bailed out and left Vienna.
Lack of confidence in IAEA safeguards got a vivid
demonstration on 7 June 1981, when Israeli
fighter-bombers destroyed a large Iraqi research reactor
that Saddam Hussein had bought from France. A pattern of
highly suspicious nuclear transactions, plus some
temporizing on the part of Saddam about inspections,
evidently persuaded Israel's leaders that Iraq might
manage to build and use a nuclear weapon before the IAEA
could provide timely warning and the world could react.
This, of course, was not the way the safeguards
system was supposed to work, and the IAEA's leaders were
naturally irate. What right did a nonparty to the
NPT—and one well known to be amassing a secret nuclear
arsenal of its own—have to, in effect, enforce NPT
requirements? The United States joined in a U.N. censure
of Israel's action, but its ambassador to the United
Nations said it was "not unreasonable to raise serious
doubts about the efficacy of the Non-Proliferation
Treaty safeguards system."
The IAEA's reactions to the Israeli raid may partly
explain and forgive why the agency may have gotten a
little careless with its language toward the end of the
1980s, when Saddam began to reassemble a nuclear weapons
program. When the agency should have just said, and
probably meant to say, that it could find no evidence of
wrongdoing, it sometimes seemed to verge on saying there
was no wrongdoing.
Still, after the first Gulf War, agency experts
played an enormous role in the investigations that
proved Saddam had an advanced and sophisticated nuclear
weapons effort. As a result of the disclosures, the
agency sought and obtained agreement by its members to
greatly increase its latitude in inspections and to give
it the mission of actually preventing nuclear
proliferation to the best of its ability. This was the
beginning of a new, very different IAEA.
Two years ago, when reports of classified IAEA
documents detailing NPT violations by Iran began to
appear in some major newspapers, I sent the press office
at the IAEA a message: given that some favored
journalists obviously were getting access to classified
material, I suggested, why not declassify the reports
and post them on the IAEA Web site, so the rest of us
journalists could read them? Soon, reports were
declassified and posted, and I knew something important
had changed.
Much ink has been spilled over the question of
whether, during the last two years, the IAEA has taken a
tough enough line on Iran. What's often lost sight of in
that debate is the simple fact that the whole case
against Iran rests on evidence assembled by the IAEA
revealing a 20-year pattern of clandestine treaty
violations. Last year, a senior safeguards official told
me on the record that the scope and seriousness of
Iran's misconduct was unprecedented in the agency's
experience.
This year, coincidentally, the world lost some of the
leaders who did the most to articulate a vision of a
world in which the peaceful application of nuclear
energy could be reconciled with the control and
elimination of nuclear weaponry. One was Hans Bethe
(19062005), the German-born scientist who, as a young
man, deciphered the nuclear processes of the sun, helped
bring the new nuclear physics to the United States, and
served as head of the theory division in the Manhattan
Project. "It was his conviction that nuclear energy and
arms control must be reconciled, not merely that they
can be," comments Panofsky—"and that is my conviction,
too," he adds.
Another great loss was the physicist Jozef Rotblat
(19082005), generally believed to be the only member of
the Manhattan Project to resign after Germany was
defeated and the specter of a Nazi nuclear weapon was
gone. In the 1950s, with Albert Einstein and Bertrand
Russell, Rotblat founded the Pugwash nuclear disarmament
movement.
Perhaps it is not too much, as that generation of
disarmament-minded physicists fades, to think of the
IAEA's peace prize as an effort to institutionalize a
movement that used to depend on the leadership of very
exceptional individuals. If so, the Nobel committee may
be hoping for a little too much. For the agency is still
saddled with an immensely difficult job, Panofsky
reminds us, that will be doable only if all the
signatories keep their NPT commitments and enforce
obligations in a fair-minded and nondiscriminatory way.